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Abstract:
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Since the early 1970’s researchers have use agent-based modeling (ABM) to simulate biological ecosystems, animal behaviors, human interactions, and other phenomena. Important agent-based models developed for U.S. government use include the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Distributed Generation Market Demand model and the Congressional Budget Office’s Long-term model. In this paper, we present research on an agent-based model designed to project residential energy demand in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Results of the pilot study indicate that an ABM approach would be useful for improving geographic detail and scenario analysis in the NEMS. The ABM approach also provides a straightforward method of incorporating data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey into the NEMS Residential Energy Demand module, allowing expanded geographic and demographic analysis of energy consumption trends.
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