Is Homeownership Actually Rising and Vacancy Falling? Assessing Housing Vacancy Survey Estimates for 2020

• Activity Number: 445 - GOVT CSpeed 2
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2021 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
• Author(s): Jonathan Spader* and Daniel Truver and Peter Mateyka and Patricia Holley and Robert Callis
• Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
• Keywords: Nonresponse; COVID; Homeownership; Vacancy

Abstract

Rising COVID-19 case counts in early 2020 led to changes in the data collection procedures used for the Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS), an important source of information about vacancy rates and the homeownership rate in the United States. On March 20th, 2020, the Census Bureau suspended in-person data collection attempts and shifted all data collection operations to telephone-based attempts, a change that remained in place through July 2020, when in-person data collection was gradually reintroduced in some areas of the country. This paper presents non-response analyses that show significant changes in sample composition following the change in data collection methods. The paper then develops an alternative non-response weighting adjustment factor and examines the implications for CPS/HVS estimates. The results show that the observed changes in sample composition contributed to the historically large increase in the homeownership rate in 2020. The results also show the potential for CPS/HVS vacancy rate estimates to underestimate the actual levels of vacancy following the changes in data collection procedures.