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Activity Number:
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373
- Analysis of Duration Data, with Applications to the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Type:
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Topic-Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 12, 2021 : 12:00 PM to 1:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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IMS
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Abstract #317248
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Title:
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The Generation Time Distribution: Problems with Estimating It and Consequences Thereof
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Author(s):
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Tom Britton*
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Companies:
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Stockholm University
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Keywords:
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Epidemic;
Generation time;
Model;
Bias
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Abstract:
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The generation time is defined as a random variable describing the time between getting infected and infecting others. It's distribution $g(s)$ can be modelled by a scaled version of the average rate at which an individual infects others $s$ time units after infection. This rate is affected by the amount of virus shedding but also on the amount of social contacts of the individual, implying that the onset of symptom affect the generation time distribution. For the same reason recommendations to self-isolate when having symptoms as well as contact tracing tend to shorten the generation time. Another complicating factor is that the infection rate may differ between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals since the latter typically does not reduce its contacts, and typically only information about the former is available. In the talk we discuss these features with focus on how to model and estimate the generation time distribution and discuss potential biases and how these affect e.g. estimates of the daily reproduction number.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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