Forecasting the Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Employment Opportunities in the North Carolina Textile Industry Using Time Series Models

• Activity Number: 75 - SPEED: Data Challenge and SPAAC
• Type: Topic-Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2021 : 10:00 AM to 11:50 AM
• Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
• Author(s): Lori Rothenberg* and Sneha Rani and Helmut Hergeth and Lisa Chapman
• Companies: North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University
• Keywords: textile industry; time series; forecasting; employment; COVID-19; wages

Abstract

Employment opportunities in any industry are largely driven by several macroenvironmental factors. The global outbreak of COVID-19 slowed operations and transactions due to the extended lockdowns and changed consumer behaviors. The purpose of this study was to forecast the 2020 employment trends in the North Carolina textile industry from pre-pandemic data and to explore the potential impact of COVID-19 on employment in the industry. Data were obtained from the NC Department of Commerce Labor & Economic Analyses on employment, number of establishments, and wages for each of four textile businesses: textile mills, textile retail, textile wholesale, and textile services. Time series forecast models were built for data from 2014-2019 which were used to forecast data for 2020. In general, the number of establishments, employment and wages could be forecasted accurately for the first quarter of 2020. However, virtually none of the forecasts for the second quarter of 2020 were accurate. Interestingly, a few of the third and fourth quarter forecasts were accurate. Some of the inconsistencies could be unique to textiles because of its existing slow decline.