|
Abstract:
|
The COVID-19 pandemic, induced by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is literally a rare event in the course of history, because we need to go back to 1918 for a similar, even worse pandemic, the Spanish Flu, or H1N1, although we also had a tuberculosis pandemic in the interbellum; there was the Russian flu in 1890 (maybe also a coronavirus and not influenza), and the plague that literally haunted the world for several centuries.
I-BioStat has been involved in the response to the COVID-19 crisis, ranging from mathematical and statistical modeling, over day-to-day monitoring, to scientific and government committee work and policy making.
First, a broad framework of our activities will be sketched. Second, we will consider a few areas of mathematical and statistical interest: (a) stochastic models used to describe the epidemic, with emphasis on estimation of the dark number (the true but unknown number of infections) and short- and intermediate term predictions; (b) the New York effect; (c) COVID-19 and excess mortality; (d) monitoring the epidemic, using a variety of metrics: (e) the international context; (f) clinical trials, COVID-19 and other.
|
