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Activity Number:
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419
- Quantifying the Anthropogenic Fingerprint in Climate Change
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 12, 2021 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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Abstract #315551
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Title:
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Changing Seasons and Related Topics
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Author(s):
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Jan Beran* and Britta Steffens and Sucharita Ghosh
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Companies:
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University of Konstanz and University of Konstanz and Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
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Keywords:
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climate change;
change of seasons;
exceedances;
seasonal temperatures;
long-range dependence;
functional limit theorem
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Abstract:
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Climate change is thought to lead to a change of seasons. To what extent this is true, and to what extent natural variation is a contributing factor is still part of an ongoing discussion. Statistically, the presence of long memory in observed time series complicates inference. In this talk we discuss recent advances in time series analysis for long-memory processes in view of quantifying changes in seasonal temperatures. This includes for instance testing for changes in the expected number of exceedances. Functional limit theorems for seasonal empirical processes lead to methods that allow for reliable test in the presence of strong dependence. Applications to temperature series at different locations reveal interesting location-dependent differences in the effect of global warming on seasonal temperature exceedances. This is joint work with Britta Steffens and Sucharita Ghosh.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
