Activity Number:
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528
- New Developments in Statistical Methods for Forensic Science and Forensic Metrology
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 6, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Committee on Law and Justice Statistics
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Abstract #308075
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Title:
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Are Reported Likelihood Ratios Well Calibrated?
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Author(s):
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Jan Hannig* and Hari iyer
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Companies:
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University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and National Institute of Standards and Technology
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Keywords:
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Likelihood Ratio;
Forensic Statistics;
Generalized Fiducial Inference
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Abstract:
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In this work we introduce a new statistical methodology for empirically examining the validity of model-based Likelihood Ratio (LR) systems by applying a general statistical inference approach called generalized fiducial inference. LR systems are gaining widespread acceptance in many forensic disciplines, especially in the interpretation of DNA evidence in the form of probabilistic genotyping systems (PGS). These systems output a Bayes factor, commonly referred to as likelihood ratios in forensic science applications. Methods for examining the validity of such systems is a topic of ongoing interest. In addition to summarizing existing approaches and developing our new approach, we illustrate the methods using the PROVEDIt dataset by examining LR values calculated with open source PG software. Finally we discuss our own proposal for calculating LR for DNA evidence based on generalized fiducial inference.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.