Activity Number:
|
463
- SPEED: Methodological Advances in Time Series: BandE Speed Session, Part 1
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
Date/Time:
|
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
Sponsor:
|
Business and Economic Statistics Section
|
Abstract #305046
|
Presentation
|
Title:
|
Application of Linear and Nonlinear Models into Trend Analysis of U.S. Cotton Export (1996-2017)
|
Author(s):
|
Zahra Saki* and Marguerite Moore and Lori H. Rothenberg
|
Companies:
|
NC State University and NC State University and North Carolina State Un.
|
Keywords:
|
Trend analysis;
Linear models;
Non-linear model;
Textiles and Apparel;
Comparative Advantage;
Cotton
|
Abstract:
|
Cotton fiber is the largest source of U.S. textile and apparel export advantage. Rises and falls in cotton export advantage over the examination period (1996-2017) embolden research into past trend analysis of cotton fiber. UN-COMTRADE database is used to extract export values of products including HS5201, Cotton; not carded or combed, to calculate the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index. Simple linear regression (SLR), modified SLR following outlier removal and a non-linear model (i.e., cyclical) are used to fit the data. A cyclical model suggesting a repeated period of seven years best describes variation of U.S. cotton export competitiveness.
|
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.