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Abstract:
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The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) conducts time trend analyses using health measures from its complex surveys and the National Vital Statistics System. A new report, "NCHS Guidelines for Analysis of Trends", discusses issues that should be considered when conducting a time trend analysis using NCHS data and presents, for each issue, guidelines for making analysis choices. Some issues apply to all trend analyses, such as selection of the time points to include in the analysis; others relate to the type of data (survey data or vital records data, record-level or aggregated), to whether the trend is linear or nonlinear, and to other topics. Particular attention is paid to Joinpoint regression modeling of trends. Trend analysis examples from NCHS' flagship publication, Health, United States, are presented to illustrate analysis issues encountered with NCHS data and the new guidelines. Areas for future research are noted.
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