Abstract:
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The goal of this project is to develop a nonparametric Bayesian method for estimating the spectrum of a stationary time series using data collected from neuroscience experiments. Our approach is to represent the spectral density function as a probability density function, which we model, using a mixture of beta densities with random weights with a Dirichlet process prior. This approach gives rise to a nonparametric Bayesian method for spectral density estimation. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to simulate the spectral density, which allows us to obtain point estimates and statistics of interest such as credible intervals and posterior quantities. We validate our model using numerical experiments, by testing the model with time series generated from a random walk with drift, as well as, an ARMA model. We give an empirical illustration of this modeling approach by conducting spectral analysis on brain activity measured by an electroencephalogram. The spectrum is estimated in order to identify the main frequency bands of activity of the brain. Finally, we discuss future work that extends the model to several dimensions.
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