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Activity Number: 342 - SPEED: Sports to Fire: Fascinating Applications of Statistics
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: SSC
Abstract #330005 Presentation
Title: Distributions of Time to First Spot Fire
Author(s): Trevor Thomson*
Companies: Simon Fraser University
Keywords: Firebrand; Mixture distribution; Poisson process; Simulation; Wildfire modelling
Abstract:

In wildfire management, a spot fire is the result of an airborne ember igniting a separate fire away from the main wildfire. Under certain environmental and wildfire conditions, a burning ember can breach a fuel break, such as a river or road, and result in the production of a spot fire. By utilizing information related to the wildfire, we model the generation of embers, and derive probability distributions of the time to the first spot fire occurring across a fuel break. A wildfire simulator is developed, and we present procedures that can aid fire managers in practice. This is joint work with John Braun (UBC-O) and Joan Hu (SFU).


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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