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Activity Number: 57 - Developments in Bayesian Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Small Area Health Data
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 29, 2018 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract #328789 Presentation
Title: Age-Specific Distributed Lag Models for Assessing the Impact of Heat on Health
Author(s): Matthew Heaton* and Cassandra Olenick
Companies: Brigham Young University and National Center for Atmospheric Research
Keywords: Point Pattern; Multivariate

Distributed lag models have been consistently used throughout the years to assess the cumulative impact of multiple days of high heat on public health. Distributed lag models, however, are often used on an aggregate level (e.g. city- or census-tracts) in spite of the fact that the effect of heat on health is individual-specific leading to possible ecological fallacies. To capture more individualized effects of heat on health, we propose a point process model where the intensity of the point process is age-specific and depends on lagged temperatures. Using data from the Houston department of public health, we demonstrate the effectiveness of using individual-level (rather than aggregate) data for assessing the impact of heat on health.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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