The CBD-O Model for Modeling Obesity Prevalence

• Activity Number: 131 - Simulation and MCMC
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2018 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistical Computing
• Author(s): Tatjana Miljkovic* and Seonjin Kim
• Companies: Miami University and Miami University
• Keywords: CBD; age-period-cohort; obesity; CBD-O; stochastic modeling; stochastic modeling

Abstract

Modeling and projecting the obesity prevalence have an important implication in the evaluation of mortality risk. A large volume of literature exists in the area of modeling mortality rates, but very few models have been developed for modeling obesity prevalence. We developed the CBD-O stochastic model for modeling the obesity prevalence that accounts for an age and period effect as well as a cohort effect. The CBD-O model is used to model obesity prevalence for the United States population, aged 23-90, during the period 1988-2012. Forecast is validated in comparison to the actual data for the period 2013-2015.