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Abstract:
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Personal cure is a statistic used to predict the long-term probability of dying of non-cancer related causes given the lifespan of the population. Current methods rely on adequate follow-up time and give outdated results. We propose a semi-parametric approach to modeling personal cure which combines the predicted cancer survival from the parametric mixture cure model with stratified rates of all-cause mortality from the US life tables (non-parametric). A competing risk model is used to join results from the two data sources. 2007 predictions from SEER colorectal cancer data were 83-89% for localized stage, 66-72% for regional stage, and 12-14% for distant stage. Accuracy of the mixture cure model was improved with the addition of the joinpoint method, however distant stage cure rates are likely underestimated due to less follow-up data. The probability of personal cure summarizes in one measure the risk of dying of cancer and dying of other causes making it an important statistical tool for clinical decision making.
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