Abstract:
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Measuring HIV incidence over time is imperative for monitoring changes in epidemics. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of a population of adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) eligible to acquire HIV-1, become pregnant, and attend antenatal clinics (ANC) during pregnancies. The model was parameterized for four separate settings in sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe). Using different strategies of incidence estimation (changes in prevalence as a proxy for incidence, a synthetic cohort strategy, and use of a LAg-Avidity incidence assay), we estimated the statistical power of each strategy to detect either a 25% reduction in HIV incidence over one year or a 40% reduction incidence over two years. Results will be discussed, including statistical power for each incidence measurement strategy and the use of individual-based mathematical models for performing power calculations.
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