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Abstract:
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The modulated extended cumulative exposure model (modulated ECEM) is another expression of the extended cumulative exposure model (ECEM) that includes features of the cumulative exposure model (CEM) and the memoryless model (MM). The CEM proposed by Nelson (1980) is often used to express the failure probability models and is widely accepted in reliability fields because accumulation of fatigue to each stress level is considered to be reasonable. Contrary to this, the MM is also used in electrical engineering because accumulation of fatigue is not observed in some cases. The ECEM and the modulated ECEM include features of both the described models. These models are often used to express the failure probability model in step-stress accelerated life test (SSALT). However, these models are sometimes difficult to estimate their parameters. In this study, we estimate their model parameters using MCMC and calculate their confidence intervals using the bootstrap method.
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