The Penalty Differential Effect in the Calling of Penalties in the NHL

• Activity Number: 135
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Steven E. Rigdon* and Christopher J. Rigdon
• Companies: Saint Louis University and Lindenwood University-Belleville
• Keywords: Hierarchical Bayes ; Ice Hockey ; Officiating Bias

Abstract

We use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to create a model for the calling of penalties, which can measure the referee bias. Data from the 2014-15 season are used to model the propensity of each official and each officiating team to call a penalty on the home or away team, given the game's current penalty differential, that is, the number of penalties that led to power plays for the home team minus the number for the visiting team.