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Abstract:
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) currently uses purely statistical models to decompose total residential energy consumption into portions used for space heating, air conditioning, water heating, and other energy end uses. The models regress housing unit-level total energy consumption data from the Energy Supplier Survey (ESS) against relevant housing unit and household characteristics data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). Beginning with the 2015 RECS, EIA will introduce a two-stage modeling system to effect this decomposition. The first stage uses a deterministic 'engineering' model to estimate energy consumption at the appliance level, and the second stage uses a statistical 'calibration' model, similar to but much simpler than the current models, to subsequently calibrate the sum of the engineering end-use estimates to the reported total consumption. This paper compares estimates of electricity and natural gas end uses derived from the new method against the existing estimates from the 2009 RECS.
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