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Activity Number: 97
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2016 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Royal Statistical Society
Abstract #318010 View Presentation
Title: A Multiple Systems Estimate Approach to Quantifying Modern Slavery, in the Context of the UK Government's Strategy and Legislation
Author(s): Bernard W. Silverman* and Olivia Hesketh
Companies: Home Office, UK and Home Office, UK
Keywords: Multiple Systems Estimation ; Human Rights ; Trafficking ; Statistics in Government
Abstract:

Forms of slavery exist in most or all countries, but the estimation of its extent faces numerous difficulties. Most estimates rely on secondary source information for which no measures of reliability or validity exist. Other estimates combine secondary sources with random sample victimization surveys, but this is not an appropriate methodology for developed countries like the United Kingdom. A key component of the launch of the UK Government's Modern Slavery Strategy and its new legislation against Modern Slavery was a more careful approach to the quantification of this crime. The way that the UK National Crime Agency collects data made it possible to use a multiple systems estimation approach to obtain a confidence interval, ten thousand to thirteen thousand, for the number of potential victims in the UK. The presentation will give details of the data, the relevant model, and its fitting and checking. It will conclude with some reflections on the way the research was disseminated and publicly received (with front page reporting in most newspapers) and more widely on the role of scientific advice in the UK Government.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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