Probabilistic Worldwide CO2 Forecasts

• Activity Number: 538
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Alec Zimmer* and Adrian Raftery and Dargan Frierson
• Companies: University of Washington and University of Washington and University of Washington
• Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model ; Economic growth ; Kaya identity ; Population projection

Abstract

In 2014, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 for the first time. These were higher than previous projections, projecting world population in 2100 to be between 9.6 and 12.3 billion with probability 80% (Gerland et al, 2014, Science). We investigate the implications for long-term worldwide projections of CO2 emissions. We use a modification of the widely-used Kaya identity to project CO2 emissions by a decomposition into the effects of population, economic growth, and CO2 emissions per economic output. We develop Bayesian hierarchical models for each component and estimate them from data for the period 1960-2010. We obtain probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions for all countries to 2100.