Abstract:
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The human reproductive axis is regulated by the interactions of hormones in the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis, especially through the regulation of Luteinizing Hormone (LH) and Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH). These hormones are secreted intermittently in boluses, called pulses. To study HPO hormones, participants undergo a rapid blood sampling protocol (e.g. every 10 minutes for 12 hours). The results are time series of hormone concentrations. Here we consider a joint model of LH and FSH to characterize the biologic associations between the pulses and improve estimation of FSH pulses. We extend the deconvolution model of pulsing hormones to allow an imperfect, temporal association (e.g., FSH pulses are not required to trigger for every LH pulse). We show how a Cox cluster process can be used to model the temporal association between the pulse locations of two hormones. The estimation is conducted using a spatial birth-death Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Both simulation and experimental LH-FSH data are used to exhibit the performance of this approach compared to existing methods.
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