Evaluation of Source-Specific Health Effects on Low Daily Mortality Accounting for Uncertainty in Source Apportionment

• Activity Number: 603
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Eun Sug Park* and Man-Suk Oh
• Companies: Texas A&M Transportation Institute and Ewha Womans University
• Keywords: Source-specific exposures ; Multipollutant approach ; Multivariate receptor models ; Model uncertainty ; Poisson health outcome

Abstract

Assessment of source-specific health effects has received increasing attention in air pollution epidemiology over the past decade. While there have been several studies that evaluated source-specific health effects, the uncertainty in the estimated source-specific exposures (source contributions) as well as the inherent model uncertainty in source apportionment have been largely ignored. We present a unified Bayesian approach to evaluation of source-specific health effects on low daily mortality that can handle both parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty in source apportionment. The proposed method is illustrated with real multi-pollutant data and daily mortality data as well as simulated data.