Childhood Brain Cancer in Florida: A Bayesian Clustering Approach

• Activity Number: 301
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Chawarat Rotejanaprasert*
• Keywords: Exceedence probability ; Pediatric brain cancer ; Relative risk ; Bayesian

Abstract

In this project, we focus on geocoded data for pediatric brain cancer in Florida. Specifically, we examine zip code level pediatric brain cancer counts from the Florida Association of Pediatric Tumor Programs (FAPTP) childhood cancer registry from 2000-2010 and assess the degree of spatial clustering in these data. We assume Bayesian models for relative risk and examine a variety of posterior measures that indicate excess risk (exceedence probability of relative risk or positive residual). We assume a standard Poisson convolution model and examine a zero-inflated (ZI) model with a factored intercept. We conclude that there is evidence of excess risk in a number of relatively dispersed zip codes across the state but there appears to be some concentration of high excess risk in Polk, Lake, and Sumter counties (west of Orlando and north east of Tampa). These excesses are confirmed across the models.