Quantile POD for Nondestructive Evaluation with Hit-Miss Data

• Activity Number: 179
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 10, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
• Author(s): Yew-Meng Koh*
• Companies: Hope College
• Keywords: Bayesian estimation ; Binary regression ; Have Cracks, Will Travel ; NDE ; Random effects

Abstract

Probability of detection (POD) is commonly used to measure a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspection procedure's performance. Due to inherent variability in the inspection procedure caused by variability in factors such as operators and crack morphology, it is important, for some purposes, to model POD as a random function. Traditionally, inspection variabilities are pooled and an estimate of the mean POD is reported. In some applications it is important to know how poor typical inspections might be and this question is answered by estimating a quantile of the POD distribution. This paper shows how to fit a proper model to repeated-measures hit-miss data and considers estimation of the mean POD as well as quantiles of the POD distribution for binary (hit-miss) NDE data. We also show how to compute credible intervals for these quantities using a Bayesian estimation approach.