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Activity Number: 472
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Graphics
Abstract #314662
Title: Representing Uncertainty in the Statistical Analysis of War Crimes
Author(s): Patrick Ball*
Companies: Human Rights Data Analysis Group
Keywords: human rights ; graphics ; uncertainty
Abstract:

In the measurement of mass violence, nearly all the data are convenience samples with unknowable biases. Estimation transforms the bias into variance. That is, estimation adjusts the observed measurement to a less-biased point estimate within a estimated range of uncertainty, i.e., a confidence or credible interval. This paper presents three graphical representations of the uncertainty in estimates used in the analysis of war crimes, including in graphs used for publications and in reports used for expert testimony. Examples will include analysis used in the trials of the former heads of state of Yugoslavia, Guatemala, and Chad.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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