Exit Polls: Every Vote Counts

• Activity Number: 22
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
• Author(s): Mary Gray*+ and Emmanuel Addo
• Companies: American University and American University
• Keywords: class projects ; exit polls ; civic engagement ; evidence-based policy ; statistics education

Abstract

Students in an undergraduate Basic Statistics class at American University conducted an exit poll at a sample of precincts in the Northern Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax and Loudon and the city of Alexandria at the November 2013 Virginia statewide election. The precincts were selected by students in a graduate class in survey sampling to reflect the economic composition of the region. Voters leaving the polls were asked whether they encountered difficulty in voting, due to voter ID restrictions or for other reasons. Although less than 2% of the voters reported difficulties, the students were impressed by the importance of voter access since at the end of the day's balloting, the victor in one of the statewide contests (for Attorney General) was ahead by only 165 out of a total of 2.2 million votes, subsequently increased to approximately 900 in a recount. There were observable differences in the degree of difficulty reported in precincts having varying characteristics. Inspired by their venture in civic engagement, students are urging the repeat of the process in the 2014 elections in the DC-MD-VA region and are hoping to enlist the participation of statistics student