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Activity Number: 364
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 6, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #310356
Title: A Note on DIC Justification
Author(s): Shouhao Zhou*+
Companies: The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center
Keywords: bayesian modeling ; model selection ; deviance ; DIC
Abstract:

DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) has been widely used in applications of Bayesian modelling. As a Bayesian adaption of AIC, it heuristically estimates the out-of-sample plug-in log-likelihood, a relative risk based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, but the estimation itself is criticized for lack of a clear theoretical foundation. In this article, I will provide a rigid justification for DIC, explore its generalization for mis-specified candidate models, and discuss the switch to a modified version of DIC with respect to Bayesian expected loss.


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