Model-Based Targeted Address Canvassing: A Simulation Based on the 2009 Address Canvassing Program

• Activity Number: 142
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 5, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
• Author(s): John Boies*+ and Kevin M. Shaw and Jonathan Holland
• Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
• Keywords: Decennial Census ; Cost/Benefit Analysis ; Address Canvassing ; Simulation ; Modeling ; Logistic Regression

Abstract

We use data from the 2009 Census Addressing Canvassing (AC) operationto conduct a "What If" simulation of a model based "targeted" AC program where census blocks are selected for canvassing based on their predicted probabilities of deviating from the master address file's data. Covariates measuring block characteristics of two kinds-physical structure, e.g., housing unit count, characteristics, and social structure, e.g., demographics-were used to predict 11 different canvassing outcomes. The results indicate that both physical and social structure are important predictors of whether blocks warrant a visit by field representatives. Some interesting results include that the number of housing units in a block is negatively related to residential change once other variables, e.g., multi-unit structure composition and social structure variables, e.g., age, sex composition are introduced into the models. The research indicates that models to predict which blocks should be targeted for canvassing can be developed and that this approach could result in substantial savings of time and money in preparation for the 2020 Decennial Census with a minimal affect on Census quality.