Population Structure Modeling to Evaluate Substitution and Dual Use of Tobacco Products in Response to Changing Policies

• Activity Number: 672
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 8, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): Eric Vugrin*+ and Steve Verzi and Nancy S. Brodsky and Ben Apelberg and Antonio Paredes and George Rochester and Brian Rostron and Robert J. Glass
• Companies: Sandia National Labs and Sandia National Labs and Sandia National Laboratories and Center for Tobacco Products and US-Food and Drug Administration and Center for Tobacco Products/FDA and Center for Tobacco Products and Sandia National Laboratories
• Keywords: tobacco ; health ; policy ; smoking

Abstract

A fundamental source of uncertainty in tobacco regulatory policy development is the ability to accurately predict how affected populations will react to changes in policy. One possible response is to substitute other tobacco products for cigarettes. The increasing number of tobacco products (e.g., e-cigarettes, snus, etc.) on the market makes such substitution a real possibility. Although researchers have applied expert elicitation and population modeling techniques to predict the impacts of policy changes, none of these efforts have rigorously addressed product substitution.

We introduce a multi-product population model of tobacco use for analyzing potential policy options. The model allows tobacco users to transition among tobacco products as well as to use products simultaneously. Relative health risks are assigned according to an individual's current or previous tobacco product use. Rigorous application of statistical and uncertainty analysis methodologies to model results can inform policy decisions by characterizing key uncertainties. We present an illustrative case study examining substitution and dual use in a two-product system as a demonstration.