Abstract Details
Activity Number:
|
616
|
Type:
|
Invited
|
Date/Time:
|
Thursday, August 8, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
Sponsor:
|
Business and Economic Statistics Section
|
Abstract - #307105 |
Title:
|
Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Structural Change Detection
|
Author(s):
|
Zhou Zhou*+
|
Companies:
|
University of Toronto
|
Keywords:
|
Piecewise locally stationary time series ;
structural change detection ;
bootstrap
|
Abstract:
|
The assumption of (weak) stationarity is crucial for the validity of most of the conventional tests of structure change in time series. In view of the increasing empirical evidences of complicated non-stationary temporal dynamics of time series collected from various fields such as climatology, economics and signal processing, we argue that traditional testing procedures result in mixed structural change signals of the first and second order and hence could lead to seriously biased testing results. We propose a simple and unified bootstrap testing procedure which provides consistent testing results under very general forms of smooth and abrupt changes in the temporal dynamics of the time series. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to compare our testing procedure to various traditional tests. Our robust bootstrap test is applied to testing changes in an environmental and a financial time series and our procedure is shown to provide more reliable results than the conventional tests.
|
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2013 program
|
2013 JSM Online Program Home
For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.
If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.
Copyright © American Statistical Association.