JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 630
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 4, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: IMS
Abstract - #303125
Title: Risk-Limiting Election Audits Using Stratified Random Samples
Author(s): Michael Higgins*+ and Philip Stark and Ronald Rivest
Companies: University of California at Berkeley and University of California at Berkeley and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Address: , , ,
Keywords: Auditing ; Elections ; Stratified random sample ; 0-1 knapsack
Abstract:

Votes in elections are often tallied using machines. The machine counts may differ from what a hand count would show. Risk-limiting audits test the null hypothesis that machine-count outcome differs from the hand-count outcome, regardless of the cause of the difference. For contests that span multiple counties, existing election audit laws--which do not call for risk-limiting audits--typically require each county in the contest to hand count the ballots in a set of precincts selected at random from that county. This is a stratified random sample of precincts; the strata are counties. We show that, for risk-limiting audits using stratified random samples, a conservative P-value can be obtained by solving a 0-1 knapsack problem.


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