Long-Term Projection on Precipitation Regime of Thrace Basin of Turkey via Nonlinear Time Series Models

• Activity Number: 587
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Sipan Aslan*+ and Ceylan Yozgatligil and Inci Batmaz
• Companies: Middle East Technical University and Middle East Technical University and Middle East Technical University
• Keywords: Nonlinear Time Series ; Precipitation ; Forecasting ; SETAR ; LSTAR ; NARX

Abstract

Thrace basin of Turkey is located between Mediterranean Sea and the Balkan Peninsula, it is surrounded by the Aegean Sea, the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea. Thrace basin known as transition zone of surrounding climate systems for this reason climate of Thrace region and precipitation regime is not consistent. In some years the Black Sea climate or the Mediterranean climate can have an effect on this area. The aim of the study is to clarify unstable precipitation regime and to make a long term projection on it via Nonlinear Autoregressive Models such as Self-Exciting Threshold Auto Regressive (SETAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous variable (NARX) models. Results of linear parametric time series models such as Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Seasonal Dummy Models are also compared with the nonlinear ones. We used monthly and annual total precipitation observations of land observatories from which are located on Thrace basin of Turkey.