Parametric Cost Modeling for Space Telescopes

• Activity Number: 76
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2011 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Todd Henrichs*+
• Companies: Middle Tennessee State University
• Keywords: Cost Model ; Space Telescope ; Power Model ; Logarithmic Regression

Abstract

Parametric cost modeling is used by NASA and the aerospace industry to analyze and predict cost for technically complex, state-of-the-art satellite instrumentation of all kinds. However, most cost models predict cost for the instrument package as a whole, not its individual subsystems. Many existing models are inconsistent and lack sufficient detail to perform trade-off analysis. Our continuing modeling efforts are aimed at creating cost models for the Optical Telescope Assembly (OTA) of space telescopes based on a database of 41 OTAs. This undertaking has generated single-variable mass- and diameter-driven models and analyses that have been presented to the optical system engineering and cost estimation communities. Currently we continue our analyses to find multivariate cost models with improved prediction capability. We present the methodology behind the data collection, variable selection, and model diagnosis used in our model development process.