Predictors of Intent to Mailback, Self-reported Mailback, and Actual Mailback of the 2010 Census

• Activity Number: 61
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2011 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
• Author(s): Gina K. Walejko*+ and Ting Yan and Rupa Datta
• Companies: Science and Technology Policy Institute and NORC at the The University of Chicago and NORC at the The University of Chicago
• Keywords: Census ; government surveys ; attitudes ; self-report ; behaviors

Abstract

The Census Bureau sponsored two data collections to gauge participation in the 2010 Census. Gallup conducted the daily Census Continuous Tracking Study (CCTS) survey, and NORC at the University of Chicago conducted the 2010 Census Integrated Communications Program Evaluation (CICPE) survey. CCTS provided real-time metrics that included two Census participation measures: intent to mailback and self-reported mailback. CICPE collected participation measures on intent to mailback and actual mailback based on respondent addresses matched to Census administrative records. In this paper, we compare and contrast differences in the attitudinal predictors of three models: intention to mailback, self-reported mailback, and actual mailback. Examples of attitudinal and belief predictors include attitudes towards the Census mattering, attitudes towards the Census taking too long, and having heard anything about the Census. We align these findings with cognitive theories that link attitudes with behaviors. Significant predictors for models included (1) belief that the Census matters, (2) expectation that the time to complete the form is not too long, (3) and hearing anything about the Census.