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Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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529
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Social Statistics Section
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Abstract - #300643 |
Title:
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Methods for Estimating Selected Life Table Parameters Using the Gompertz Distribution
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Author(s):
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Peter Pflaumer*+
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Companies:
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Technical University of Dortmund
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Address:
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, Dortmund, , Germany
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Keywords:
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Mortality ;
Life Table ;
Life Expectancy ;
Life Span ;
Old-Age Dependency Ratio ;
Stationary Population
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Abstract:
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Since the mortality of modern developed populations is largely the mortality of old age, the Gompertz model provides a good approximation of life tables in these populations and can be used to estimate and forecast many parameters of the life table and the corresponding stationary population. Average and median remaining life expectancies are calculated and compared using the current U.S. life table. An analytical expression for the median remaining life expectancy is derived. The maximum life span is regarded as a random variable. The median and the modal value of the resulting density function are considered as realizations for the oldest age. A simple method for approximating the old-age dependency ratio is proposed. A sensitivity analysis is carried out. The influence of increasing life expectancy on the old-age dependency ratio is investigated.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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