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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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151
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 1, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Risk Analysis
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| Abstract - #300285 |
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Title:
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Adversarial Risk Analysis
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Author(s):
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David Banks*+
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Companies:
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Duke University
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Address:
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Department of Statistical Sciences, Durham, NC, 27708,
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Keywords:
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game theory ;
Bayes ;
decision analysis
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Abstract:
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Classical risk analysis assumes that threats are not intelligently directed; that kind of problem is traditionally treated by game theory. But game theory is an unrealistic guide to human behavior---there is much empirical evidence that people do not usually employ minimaxity. This talk describes a Bayesian approach in which the analyst "mirrors" the decision-making processes of the opponent, taking account of two types of uncertainty: uncertainty in the choice of the opponent, and uncertainty in the outcome conditional on the choice of the opponent. The approach is illustrated in the analysis of an auction and the game La Relance, invented by Borel.
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The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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