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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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547
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #300080 |
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Title:
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A Computational Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Climate Model Ensembles
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Author(s):
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Stephan Sain*+
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Companies:
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National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Address:
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P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, ,
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Keywords:
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Climate model ensemble ;
Climate change ;
Reduced-rank Kriging ;
Markov random field
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Abstract:
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The statistical analysis of climate model ensembles presents a number of challenges, including the size and complexity of the model output in the ensemble. In this talk, I will discuss these challenges within the context of a large-scale, multi-model regional climate experiment. Further, a statistical framework for evaluating models and producing probabilistic projections of climate change will be presented. This approach can be considered a type of reduced-rank Kriging and incorporates a multi-resolution basis expansion with a regularization based on a Markov random field prior distribution on the coefficients. Case studies will include temperature change over North American and detecting the ENSO response in precipitation fields.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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