This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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526
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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Abstract - #309246 |
Title:
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Bayesian Estimation of Humpback Whale Population Abundance and Movement Patterns in Northern Southeast Alaska
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Author(s):
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Albert Noble Hendrix*+
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Companies:
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R2 Resource Consultants, Inc.
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Address:
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15250 NE 95th Street, Redmond, WA, 98052, USA
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Keywords:
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mark-recapture ;
abundance ;
whale ;
WinBUGS ;
lognormal-Poisson
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Abstract:
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We propose a mark-recapture model open to mortality with movement among sampling areas. Previous work indicated improved fit over Petersen and Darroch estimators in a maximum likelihood context, and here we extend that work to a Bayesian framework. We evaluated Poisson and over-dispersed Poisson (lognormal-Poisson) distributions for the count data. We fit the model to long-term sighting history data collected by two research groups from 1993 to 2005 on humpback whales in northern Southeast Alaska. Models with lognormal-Poisson errors were selected over Poisson based on DIC and posterior predictive checks. The population abundance was 1515 (95% credible interval: 1373, 1631), median rate of increase was 8.7% (5.4%, 11.1%), and a median survival rate of 0.997 (0.985, 0.999). Whales had a 0.75 median probability of returning to the same area, indicating strong site fidelity.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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