This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 482
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #308795
Title: Evaluating Individual Player Contributions in Basketball
Author(s): Jarad Niemi*+
Companies: University of California, Santa Barbara
Address: Statistics & Applied Probability, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106-3110,
Keywords: Bayesian analysis ; Gibbs sampling ; hierarchical model ; plus-minus statistic ; offensive rating ; defensive rating
Abstract:

This paper introduces novel methodology for evaluating player effectiveness in basketball. We model separately each player's offensive and defensive contributions to their team and provide estimates that adjust for all players on the court. These offensive and defensive contributions are naturally combined to provide a plus-minus statistic for each player. We build a hierarchical model that estimates the underlying distributions for player contributions and shrinks player estimates toward average with more shrinkage given to players who play less. We illustrate the methodology using data from the 2009-2010 NBA regular season. Based on this season's data, we find the best player in the league to be Pau Gasol who provides his team with a 10.9+/-4.3 point differential compared to an average player.


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