This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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78
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Risk Analysis
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Abstract - #308230 |
Title:
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Relationship Between Prion Disease Incubation and Oral Dosage and Incidents of Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease
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Author(s):
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Chu-Chih Chen*+ and Kuen-Yuh Wu
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Companies:
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National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan and National Taiwan University
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Address:
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35 Keyan Rd. , Zhunan, Miaoli County, International, 350, Taiwan
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Keywords:
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crossspecies barrier ;
infectivity ;
Poisson process ;
incubation period ;
reaction rate
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Abstract:
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Dependence of incubation period of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) in study animals with inoculated dose of brain homogenates from TSE-infected animals has already been well-known. However, the relationship between the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) and consumption of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infected beef and the future development of vCJD has not been fully explored. Through a plausible biological mechanism of abnormal prion growth in brain, an exponential growth model of abnormal prions in the brains of the study animals was justified by fitting a survival model. Following the Poisson process of the number of times an individual haphazardly consumed BES-contaminated beef, together with the expected oral intake amount of abnormal prions, we estimate the mean aggregation of abnormal prions in brain over the time course. Implications in future incide
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