This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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419
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 3, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Survey Research Methods
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Abstract - #307737 |
Title:
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Serial Comparisons in Small Domain Models: A Residual-Based Approach
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Author(s):
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Wesley Basel*+ and Sam Hawala and David Powers
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Companies:
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U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
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Address:
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4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC, 20233,
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Keywords:
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small area ;
small domain ;
Census ;
SAIPE ;
statistical comparisons ;
poverty
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Abstract:
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The U.S. Census Bureau's Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program produces model-based estimates for small geographic areas using survey data, administrative records, postcensal population estimates and decennial census data. This paper proposes and evaluates a method for making year-to-year statistical comparisons of poverty at the county level. The method uses aggregations of regression residuals in order to estimate the underlying serial correlation in SAIPE county-level estimates. Three residual-based estimators for the model error correlation are considered, with alternative weights used for each. The estimators are evaluated using simulations under the assumed error specification, and the effect of a heteroscedastic departure from these assumptions is evaluated. Finally, empirical results are reported under two alternative error component specifications.
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