This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 257
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 2, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #307442
Title: Prediction of Pneumococcal Nonvaccination Among Persons Aged >= 65 Years
Author(s): Fan Zhang*+ and Wei Yu and Tiebin Liu and Peng-Jun Lu and Faruque Ahmed
Companies: CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC
Address: 1600 Clifton Rd, NE, Mailstop E-52 , Atlanta, GA, 30333,
Keywords: Support Vector Machine (SVM) ; Logistic Regression (LR) ; Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve ; Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccination (PPV) ; Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)
Abstract:

For targeting interventions for increasing Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccination (PPV) coverage, we compared SVM and LR to predict non-vaccination persons based on the area under ROC curves. Using 2008 BRFSS survey data, we randomly selected 80% of the records from the 2008 for the training dataset and used the remaining 20% as the test dataset. We conducted additional validations using 2006-2007 BRFSS data. The predictors included eight demographic variables and influenza vaccination status. With the 2008 test dataset, LR performed statistical significantly better than SVM (ROC 76.68% vs.75.10 p<0.05). Additional validations using the 2006-2007 data demonstrated consistent findings (ROC 77.36%-78.21% and 76.98%-77.83% for LR and SVM, respectively). The methodologies used in this study have potential application for formulating public health interventions to increase PPV coverage.


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