This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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482
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Sports
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Abstract - #306941 |
Title:
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On the Distribution of Runs Scored and Batting Strategy in Test Cricket
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Author(s):
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Xin Shi*+
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Companies:
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Manchester Metropolitan University
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Address:
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Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, Manchester, M1 3GH, UK
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Keywords:
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negative binomial distribution ;
cricket ;
strategy
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Abstract:
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A zero-inflated negative binomial distribution is fitted to partnership scores in test cricket. The distribution of runs scored in matches, in innings, in the innings of batsmen, and in a single ball are presented in an exploratory manner. For partnership scores, while a parametric model does not provide a wholly convincing fit to observed scores, it allows us to consider run-rate as a covariate in this distribution and hence to use run-rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we model the influence of run-rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at during the third innings. Our notion is that the batting team may select a desired run-rate to maximise its win probability or minimise its loss probability.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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