This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 57
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #306573
Title: A Projection of True-early-detection, No-early-detection, Overdiagnosis and Not-so-necessary Probabilities in Tumor Screening
Author(s): Dongfeng Wu*+ and Gary L. Rosner
Companies: University of Louisville and MD Anderson Cancer Center
Address: 485 E. Gray Street, Louisville, KY, 40202,
Keywords: cancer screening ; true-early-detection ; no-early-detection ; over-diagnosis ; sensitivity ; sojourn time
Abstract:

A probability model for evaluating long-term effects due to periodic screening was developed. Peoples who take part in cancer screening were categorized into 4 disjoint groups: True-early-detection, No-early-detection, Overdiagnosis and Not-so-necessary. The probability of each case was derived. Simulation studies using the HIP breast cancer study data provide estimates for these probabilities and corresponding credible intervals. These probabilities change with a person's age at study entry, screening frequency, sensitivity, and other parameters. We also allow human lifetime to be subject to a competing risk of death from other causes. The model can provide policy makers crucial information regarding the distribution of participants in a screening program who fall into one of the 4 categories. The method is applicable to other kinds of screening as well.


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