Statistical Challenges in Preparing for and Responding to a Pandemic

• Activity Number: 643
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Statistical Society of Australia
• Author(s): Niels G. Becker*+
• Companies: The Australian National University

Abstract

Work associated with the emergence of SARS, avian influenza H5N1 and the H1N1 pandemic influenza strain has generated wide recognition of the value of mathematical modelling for assessing the effectiveness of public health interventions. In preparedness plans, such assessments are made under a variety of assumptions. To provide real time guidance from such assessments we must use data collected early in the outbreak. This talk reviews new methods, with applications to data on the H1N1 pandemic, for estimating transmission rates, for detecting vulnerable groups within the population and for estimating the effectiveness of antiviral drugs and vaccines. We also attempt to use influenza season data on outbreaks occurring in the southern hemisphere to predict the likely influenza season impact in countries of the northern hemisphere.