This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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323
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 3, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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WNAR
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Abstract - #306134 |
Title:
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Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models
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Author(s):
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Carolyn M. Rutter*+
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Companies:
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Group Health Research Institute
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Address:
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1730 Minor Ave, Ste 1600, Seattle, WA, 98101, USA
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Keywords:
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identifiabilty ;
health policy ;
comparative effectiveness
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Abstract:
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Comparative effectiveness analysis is a primary application of microsimulation models. These analyses use simulation of individuals to extend information from observational and experimental studies to estimate the effectiveness and costs of different intervention strategies, and they are increasingly used to inform health policy decisions. Yet relatively little attention has been given to statistical aspects of microsimulation models. We discuss issues faced when calibrating microsimulation models, that is, when estimating parameters so that model predictions are consistent with observed data. Issues include parameter identifiablity and estimation of model prediction error. We present a Bayesian solution to these problems.
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