This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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557
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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JASA, Applications and Case Studies
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Abstract - #306070 |
Title:
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The Value of Multiproxy Reconstruction of Past Climate
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Author(s):
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Bo Li*+ and Douglas Nychka and Caspar Ammann
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Companies:
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Purdue University and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Address:
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, , 47907, USA
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Keywords:
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Bayesian hierarchical model ;
Forcings ;
Global climate model ;
Past temperature reconstruction ;
Proxies
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Abstract:
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Understanding the dynamics of climate change in its full richness requires the knowledge of long temperature time series, which is however not available upon direct observation. Fortunately there are other forms of data, known as climate proxies, that can have a statistical relationship to temperature and have been used to infer temperatures in the past before direct measurements. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct past temperatures that enables to effectively integrate information from different sources. Additionally, this method allows us to rigorously quantify the uncertainty of the reconstruction. Via synthetic climate data from global climate models, our reconstruction method and the role of each different source is thoroughly assessed. These results can be a useful guideline for multi-proxy-based temperature reconstruction of the past.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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