This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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102
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 2, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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Abstract - #305941 |
Title:
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Testing for Possible Climate Change--Caused Shifts in Forest Fire Ignitions
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Author(s):
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Charmaine Dean and Douglas Woolford*+ and Jiguo Cao and David Martell
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Companies:
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Simon Fraser University and Wilfrid Laurier University and Simon Fraser University and University of Toronto
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Address:
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, Waterloo, ON, N2L3C5, Canada
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Keywords:
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generalized additive model ;
mixture model ;
nonparametric smoothing ;
forestry ;
wildfire ignitions ;
climate change
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Abstract:
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We propose a mixture model framework to investigate climate change signals in historical records on forest fire ignitions for Ontario, Canada. A three-component mixture of logistic generalized additive models is employed, with components reflecting the zero-heavy, seasonal and extreme nature present in the data. Models with fixed and non-linear mixing weights are compared. The modelling framework, a discussion of model selection, and a test statistic for increasing extremes in ignitions are presented. Seasonal and annual changes in ignition risk are observed and discussed. Potential confounding factors are noted and examined.
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