Planning the Optimal Get-Out-the-Vote Campaign Using Randomized Field Experiments

• Activity Number: 436
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistical Learning and Data Mining
• Author(s): Aaron Strauss*+ and Kosuke Imai
• Companies: Princeton University and Princeton University
• Keywords: Statistical decision theory ; nonparametric ; Mobilization campaigns ; Treatment choice under uncertainty ; Treatment effect heterogeneity ; Variable selection

Abstract

Political scientists have recently conducted over a hundred of randomized field experiments to examine the effectiveness of various mobilization methods for increasing voter turnout. In this paper, we offer an essential and yet missing methodological tool that allows get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaign planners to best utilize the results of such field experiments. In particular, we show how to derive the optimal GOTV campaign strategy from field experiments. Our nonparametric method is applicable to partisan or nonpartisan campaigns as well as campaigns with multiple mobilization methods of different costs. We illustrate the proposed method by analyzing various field experiments. In multiple cases, we find that the resulting optimal campaign strategy is more than twice as cost-effective as a naive strategy.