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Activity Number:
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34
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 2, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #305330 |
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Title:
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Application of Robust Regression Models for Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths Using the CDC 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System Data
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Author(s):
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Po-Yung Cheng*+ and William W. Thompson and Rosaline Dhara and Al Ozonoff and Xiaopeng Miao and Lynnette Brammer and Eric Weintraub and Lenee Blanton and David K. Shay
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Companies:
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CDC and CDC and CDC and Boston University School of Public Health and Boston University School of Public Health and CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC
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Address:
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1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA, 30333,
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Keywords:
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robust regression ; influenza ; pneumonia ; deaths
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Abstract:
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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System (122 CMRS) to monitor pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and all-cause deaths. To estimate influenza-associated deaths, CDC has fit an Andrews cumulative baseline robust regression model to the ratio of P&I to all-cause deaths for decades. We modified this historical Andrews model using a 5-year baseline to estimate that an annual average of 1,264 (95% CI 864 - 1,664) influenza-associated P&I deaths occurred for the 1972/1973 through the 2006/2007 seasons. We also developed the National Centers for Health Statistics weighted P&I ratios and used the 122 CMRS P&I estimates to project that a US annual average of 4,825 influenza-associated P&I deaths occurred. The Andrews 5-year baseline model can be applied to 122 CMRS data to make timely national estimates of influenza-associated mortality.
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